New US restrictions on foreign-made advanced robots and steep tariffs on imported drones are likely to reshape where companies compete rather than erase China’s manufacturing advantage. The measures announced in July and August cite national-security concerns; drone tariffs begin in September, with additional component duties following in 2027.
China supplied the vast majority of the 22,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide in the first half of 2026, according to Counterpoint. The five largest makers—AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics—were all Chinese and together held 86 percent of shipments. Higher volume lowers costs and puts more machines into real settings, producing data that can improve later products.
Analysts expect Chinese companies to expand in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, particularly where labor shortages create demand for affordable automation. US and allied manufacturers may compete more effectively in defense and critical infrastructure, where trusted supply chains and security compliance carry greater weight than the lowest price.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could provide a middle path through strengths in industrial robotics, batteries, vehicles and semiconductors. None can quickly replace China’s full component base. The probable outcome is a regional market: China leading on cost and scale, US-aligned suppliers serving security-sensitive buyers, and Asian partners filling selected gaps.