A new analysis of US labor data found no significant, widespread reduction in employment or hiring for recent college graduates as workplace AI use accelerated. The finding challenges claims that entry-level workers are already experiencing a broad displacement shock.
Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu used Current Population Survey microdata for bachelor’s degree holders aged 22 to 25 who were not pursuing higher degrees. Their summer 2026 unemployment rate was 7.3%, within the 6.3% to 7.8% range seen in comparable summers since 2022. Comparisons with young people without degrees, older graduates and occupations with different levels of AI exposure generally produced no statistically significant divergence.
The paper does not prove that AI has had no effect on particular jobs. An earlier Stanford study using payroll data found weaker entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations, but the datasets measure different things: payroll positions versus unemployment across the broader population. The authors call 2026 an early test and warn that later graduating classes may face different conditions as companies automate more tasks. For now, national data supports caution rather than a sweeping conclusion about graduate job losses.