Hardware retired during the AI buildout could generate between 395 million and 617 million metric tons of electronic waste from 2025 through 2050, according to a report from the nonprofit Basel Action Network. The high estimate is equivalent to about 23 million shipping containers.
The projection is much larger than earlier studies because it counts more than servers and graphics processors. It includes power distribution, cooling, backup systems and networking equipment, plus a broad category of devices the authors expect AI advances to make obsolete sooner. The group estimates 70,000 metric tons of waste for each gigawatt of data-center capacity.
By 2050, the report expects total global e-waste to reach as much as 211 million metric tons a year, with AI responsible for 15% to 20%. Those are long-range projections built on assumptions about data-center growth and replacement cycles, not a measurement of waste already produced. The broad “AI waste contagion” category also makes direct comparison with server-only estimates difficult.
The disposal problem exists now regardless of the exact forecast. Less than a quarter of the world’s 68.3 million annual tons of e-waste is formally collected and recycled. Unregulated burning and dismantling can expose workers and nearby communities to lead, chromium and other hazardous materials.